日本国債 破綻するとどうなるの2011年08月08日 21時07分

日本の借金総額とは

破綻するとどうなるの

 

破綻するとどうなるのかを考えておかなければならない。どうなるのかがわからないと手の打ちようが無い。まず、経済活動がすべてストップする。ATMに行ってもお金が自由に下ろせなくなってしまう。これを預金封鎖と言う。自分の個人口座なのに。しばらくすると生活費だけは下ろせるようになる。株式市場もほとんどの銘柄がストップ安を繰り返した後、市場自体が閉鎖されてしまう。株・債券・日本円がトリプル安になる。ただ、これらは早く落ちる分、政府から対策が打ち出されれば、戻りも早い。

 

インフレになるだろうが、ハイパーインフレにはならないだろう。やはり現在の日本は、デフレ圧力がすさまじい。土地の価格も下がるだろうが、もう結構下がっているので、それ程でもないだろう。下がれば買いたい外国人もいる。とにかく、給料も下がるだろう。公務員はなおさらだ。ボーナスも下がるし、全く出ない所も増える。

 

恐らく経験したことの無い事態になるだろう。リーマン・ショックレベルの話では無い。現在の日本人が初めて見る光景が広がるだろう。昭和20年、第二次世界大戦での敗戦のような経済戦争での敗戦後の日本である。

 

反破綻論者の言い分

 

日本が近い将来破綻するという言い分に反対する人々反破綻論者と呼ぶことにする)が少なからず存在する。言ってみれば楽観論者なのだが、私も国債以外のことについては結構楽観的だが、国債については見過ごすわけにはいかない。孫や子が大変な思いをするからだ。良い思いなどまったく味わうことも無く、悪い思いだけが残る。

 

図表13]の「世代間の受益と負担の不公平」を示す図表を見ると一目瞭然だが、何とか40歳代以上までは受益と負担が均衡していて、60歳以上に至っては、かなりの受益超だが、20歳代はもちろんのこと、その将来世代においては完全に負担の方が重くのしかかってくる。我々大人は多額の借金のお陰で良い思いもしているはずだ。ぴんと来ないかもしれないが、仕事もあって家も持てたはずだ。車も2台以上ある家庭も多いし、大画面の液晶テレビやパソコンだってある。退職金や年金で海外旅行三昧の人もいるはずだ。

 

でも、最近の若者は高校・大学を卒業しても仕事が見つからない恐怖におののいている。以前テレビを見ていたら、大学を卒業しても就職口が見つからないので、専門学校へ入学する子もいると報じていた。世も末だ。非正規雇用では結婚もむずかしいし、自家用車も持てず、車の国内販売が低迷している。売れるのはおじさん好みのエコカーやハイブリッド車だけだ。ゆっくり走るプリウスやインサイトをあちこちで見かけるようになった。将来、年金ももらえるか分からず、国民年金の滞納が増え続けている。若い人たちは皆、将来が不安なのだ。我々大人が作った借金や年金などの公的な仕組みの破綻が心配なのだ。だから、少しでも不安が無くなるように道筋を早く作ってあげなければならない。

この続きが、電子書籍販売サイトのパブーにて無料ダウンロードで読めます

 

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