アイスランドと韓国の場合 ― 2011年08月13日 20時30分
アイスランドの場合
さて、デフォルトがどんな状況で発生したのか、アイスランドの場合から見てみよう。アイスランドの場合のデフォルトは、特に国債の債務不履行が原因ではないが、ごく最近の出来事で記憶に新しく、デフォルト前の華々しさから取り上げた。
アイスランド共和国は、イギリスの北西に位置する北大西洋上の小さな島国で、人口は３２万人と埼玉県越谷市と同じ位だ。このような小さな国に外国から莫大な資金が流入し、一時はアイスランドの銀行の総資産額がＧＤＰの１０倍にも達し、金融王国とまでもてはやされた。しかし、サブプライム問題が発覚すると、外国資金はあっという間に逃げてしまった。サムライ債のデフォルトなど借りた資金を返せなくなり、２００８年１０月に破綻した。
その後のアイスランドは、ＩＭＦの管理の下で耐乏生活を余儀なくされている。ＧＤＰは２００９年マイナス６．５％（前年比）、失業率も２０１０年には、１０％に近づいている。ただ、２００８年には１８％に達したインフレ率［図表１―１］も、このところ落ち着きを見せ、ハイパーインフレにはなっていない。
韓国の場合の破綻も、特に国債の債務不履行が原因ではないが、お隣の国であって、経済発展も著しいので取り上げた。
韓国の場合もアイスランドと同様に海外からの多額の融資を受けながら経済成長にまい進していた最中に、中堅財閥の韓宝グループから始まった破綻が相次ぎ、ついに起亜自動車の経営危機が表面化した。そして、企業の破綻が続く中、１９９７年のアジア通貨危機が起きてしまい、結局ＩＭＦに援助要請をする他なくなった。よって厳密にはアイスランドとは相違するかもしれないが、厳しいＩＭＦによる統制を受けたことには違いない。ＩＭＦによる統制により起きた出来事を総称して「ＩＭＦ危機」と呼んでいる。
ＩＭＦにより市場開放を迫られ、多くの主力銀行に外国資本が参入して牛耳られ、倒産、失業、財閥解体などに直面した。銀行間取引金利が１年前に比べて約３倍の２７％になった他、通貨ウォンは米ドルに対して約半分の価値になり、失業率も通常２～３％なのが、１９９８年には７％台まで上昇した。
株価も下落を続け、韓国株価指数が１１００を超えていた１９９０年代半ばから数年で株価は約４分の１になった。１９９８年の実質経済成長率はマイナス５％を下回り、前年から１０％以上も急落した。１人あたりのＧＤＰも１９９６年には１万２０００ドルを超えていたのに、１９９８年には８０００ドルを割り込んでしまった。
ただ、韓国のインフレ率（前年比）［図表１―２］は、１９９７年に６％を超え若干増加したものの直ぐに１～３％台に戻り、やはりハイパーインフレにはなっていない。
（この続きが、電子書籍販売サイトのパブーにて無料ダウンロードで読めます）
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