海外でのデフォルト2011年08月12日 20時45分

海外でのデフォルト

海外でのデフォルト

 

海外においてもデフォルトは頻繁に発生している。つい最近、アイスランドがデフォルトした。少し前にも、アルゼンチン、ロシア、エクアドル、ペルーなどでもデフォルトが発生している。

 

1998年8月にロシアが、2001年11月にアルゼンチンが、それぞれ国債のデフォルトを起こしているし、エクアドルでは2回(1999年8月と2008年12月)起きていて、それほど珍しいことではない。ただ、これらの国のデフォルトはすべて外貨建て債務のデフォルトであって、日本のように国債の90%以上が国内で消化されているのとはわけが違う。

 

ロシア、アルゼンチンでは、デフォルトが起きた四半期のGDP成長率は前期比年率で20%を超えるマイナスを記録したが、ロシアはその翌四半期、アルゼンチンでも翌々四半期にプラスに転じている。デフォルト前後のインフレ率の変化を見てみると、ロシアやアルゼンチンなどではデフォルト後にインフレ率が急上昇したが、2008年のエクアドルなどでは、インフレ率は落ち着いていて、必ずしもデフォルト=インフレとも言い切れない。

 

デフォルト前後にインフレが蔓延するかどうかは、為替レートとも非常に関連していて、デフォルト後にインフレが進行したロシアやアルゼンチンでは、いずれもデフォルト後に為替レートが急落している。一方、デフォルト前後を通じてインフレ率が安定的に推移していたペルーは、為替レートも比較的安定に推移していた。

 

次に為替レートの急落を招いた原因はというと、ドル・ペッグ(ドルに固定のレートで自国通貨を連動させる)制などの硬直した為替制度に問題がある。結果的に変動相場制への移行を余儀なくされ、通貨の急落に見舞われた。ペルーは、他の中南米諸国に先駆けて90年代初頭には「変動相場制」に移行していたので、通貨の急落にはつながらなかった。

 

 その他の要素として、再建の進め方が自発的かどうかも大きな要素であった。デフォルト前から債権者との交渉に入ってある程度、根回しが済んだ状態でデフォルトするのと、外部から強制的にリセットされるのとでは、その後の動揺も違ってくる。

この続きが、電子書籍販売サイトのパブーにて無料ダウンロードで読めます

 

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