プロローグ 日本の借金の総額 ― 2011年08月02日 20時37分
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国債などの国の借金総額は、財務省によると2010年3月末現在で、930兆円にのぼる。地方の長期債務200兆円を含めると、1000兆円を軽く超えて1130兆円にものぼる。
ただ、[図表1]を見ると、地方の借金は、このところ約200兆円でとどまっていて、平成16年度をピークとして減少する傾向すらみせている。
[図表2]に、国および地方の借金総額の推移を示す。これを見ると、国および地方の借金総額が着実に増加していることが分かる。 小泉首相のときに借金総額が急増して、安倍・福田・麻生各首相が、急増に待ったを掛けたようにも見える。
しかし、小泉政権の発足当初は確かに景気対策のために歳出を一時的に増やしたが、その後は改革を実行して、安倍政権以降に実を結んだ、と言うのが正しい。
[図表3]に、政府債務残高の推移の国際比較を示す。
日本の債務が突出しているのが良く分かる。あの破綻したギリシャの倍近くにのぼるし、陽気で楽天的なイタリアをもぶっちぎっている。
もちろん、こうした国と比較して日本のGDP(国内総生産)は、数倍から数十倍大きい上に、何より経常収支の黒字は十数兆円にのぼるも事実だ。
対してギリシャ、イタリアは数兆円、経常収支が赤字である。
[図表4]によると、借換債も含めると毎年150兆円(当初ベース)を超える国債を発行している。
平成19年度、平成20年度と2年連続して国債発行額を減らしたにもかかわらず、平成22年度には増えてしまい、元の木阿弥になってしまった。
[図表5]によると、平成21年度に新規に発行される予定の国債は53.4兆円で、公債依存度が52.1%にも達している。当初予算ではもっと低かったのだが、第2次まで補正予算を組んだ結果、50%を超えてしまった。
これは一般会計の歳入の内、半分超が借金であると言う訳だ。
引き続き平成22年度に新規に発行される予定の国債も44.4兆円と高水準で、平成23年度もさらに増えそうな勢いである。
しかしながら、借金の額は、本当はもっと多いのではないかと疑っている。
日本の行政システムは複雑で、予算が一般会計と特別会計に分かれているのは他国と同様である。2010年度の場合、一般会計予算([図表6])の歳出総額が92兆円に対して、特別会計予算([図表7])の歳出総額は367兆円もある。
ただ、367兆円には特別会計間でのやりとりが含まれるため、それを除くと純計額は176兆円になる。
[図表8]は、公的債務の流れをイメージした図である。債務はいろいろなところへ複雑に流れている。特別会計から独立行政法人等への予算支出もあるため、隠れ借金を見抜くのが困難だ。
もちろん、最近話題のいわゆる「埋蔵金」(「埋蔵金」とは、特別会計に含まれる剰余金を指す。国債の発行に頼らずとも、ムダを省くことでやり繰りできると考えた)と呼ばれる資産等もあるが、「埋蔵金」の多くは、本来の意味での剰余金ではなく借金からできていて、使えないことも事業仕分けで分かってきた。
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